October is here and teams are already on the brink of elimination
By Dayn Perry
• 1 min read
The 2024 Major League Baseball postseason got underway on Tuesday with the opening games of each of the four Wild Card Series. The opening round is a best-of-three series in MLB, which means Tuesday's winners are all one game away from advancing to the Division Series. Meantime, Tuesday's losers are one loss away from seeing their seasons end. Coming into this postseason, the team that won Game 1 of the Wild Card Series has gone on to win all eight series to date under the present format. Seven of those eight series ended in two-game sweeps.
Let's start with the scores.
Tuesday's Wild Card Series scores
- FINAL: Tigers 3, Astros 1 (Box score)
- FINAL: Royals 1, Orioles 0 (Box score)
- FINAL: Mets 8, Brewers 4 (Box score)
- FINAL: Padres 4, Braves 0 (Box score)
Now for some takeaways from Tuesday's playoff action.
Skubal was dominant vs. Astros
The upstart Tigers got vintage results from their ace and the AL Cy Young frontrunner. Tarik Skubal worked six shutout innings and allowed four hits. He struck out six of the 23 batters he faced and issued only one walk. He averaged an impressive 97.4 mph with his fastball and recorded 13 swinging strikes against Houston. Here's a sampling of his afternoon at Minute Maid Park:
Skubal's day ended after just 88 pitches, but after the game Tigers manager – and former Astros manager – A.J. Hinch revealed that his ace had been battling cramps. If the Tigers are indeed able to advance, then Skubal would be lined up to pitch Game 2 of the ALDS against the Guardians on full rest.
Let it be noted that the Astros very nearly mounted a ninth-inning comeback. Yainer Diaz's RBI single made it 3-1, and then the Astros had bases loaded with two outs when Jason Heyward scalded a liner directly into the glove of Tigers first baseman Spencer Torkelson. Heyward's lineout had an expected batting average of .570.
For the Astros, it was their sixth straight playoff loss at home.
The Orioles' hard postseason luck continues
Kansas City got six strong innings from Cole Ragans on their half of this pitchers' duel, and 24-year-old superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. drove in the only run. With two outs in the sixth inning, Witt put a 95-mph Corbin Burnes cutter through the left side to plate Maikel Garcia and make it 1-0 Royals:
Witt Jr. is thus continuing his regular-season excellence. During the regular season, he put up an OPS+ of 171 to go with 374 total bases, 31 steals, and standout defense at short. He figures to finish second in the AL MVP balloting to Aaron Judge of the Yankees.
On the Baltimore side, ace Burnes did his part with eight innings of one-run ball, but the offense was unable to break through. The O's made some noise in the ninth with Ryan O'Hearn's lead-off walk. Then, however, Adley Rutschman was punched out on a 2-2 pitch that appeared to be below the zone:
Two outs later, the Royals notched the first postseason road shutout in franchise history. As for Baltimore, they've now lost nine straight postseason games. If that streak reaches 10 on Wednesday, their season is over.
Mets' bats and bullpen carry the day
The Mets' win over the Brewers was a back-and-forth affair at first, but that changed in the middle innings thanks to a contrast in bullpen performance.
Neither starting pitcher was particularly effective. The Mets' Luis Severino and the Brewers' Freddy Peralta combined for 10 innings of work and seven runs allowed on 10 hits and three walks. Critically, though, Severino worked six of those 10 innings, thus somewhat sparing the Mets' bullpen. That didn't seem a likely outcome after Severino permitted four runs in as many frames to start the game. However, he was able to – industry-mandated terminology forthcoming – settle down and hold the Brewers scoreless in the fifth and sixth innings. Not spared was the Brewers' bullpen. Four relievers combined to work the final five frames, and they fared worse than Peralta did. The Mets in contrast used just two bullpenners, closer Edwin Díaz not among them.
A five-run fifth inning at the expense of that Brewer bullpen gave the Mets some separation, and the big hit came off the bat of veteran slugger J.D. Martinez, who came through as a pinch-hitter:
The clutch knock was a surely welcome one for Martinez, who struggled badly in the second half and particularly in September.
Back to the pitching side, Mets moundsmen retired the last 17 batters they faced and sucked the drama out of what had been a compelling punch-counterpunch game early on.
One mostly cold comfort for Milwaukee is that 19-year-old phenom Jackson Chourio, who appeared to take the next step toward stardom, became the youngest hitter every to record multiple hits in his first postseason game.
Michael King dominated the Braves
The first home run of the 2024 postseason didn't come until the fourth game of the 2024 postseason. Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres ended the drought with the first blow of what would be a 4-0:
The story, though, would be the dominance of right-hander Michael King, whom the Padres acquired from the Yankees as part of the Juan Soto blockbuster.
King's stuff was in peak form for his first ever playoff start, and he twirled a gem and made some history:
And here's just a taste of his stuff on this night:
While the Braves on occasion put some traffic on the bases, they were mostly baffled by King's velocity and late, crisp movement. He averaged 95.1 mph with his fastball in Game 1, and overall he threw five different pitches – each at least 10% of the time. He earned 15 swings and misses on Tuesday, with seven coming on a sweeper that was in peak form coming out of King's low-ish arm slot. In the sixth inning, King became the first Padres pitcher to strike out 10 or more batters in a playoff game since Kevin Brown in 1998.
Manager Mike Shildt opted to lift King after seven innings and 89 pitches and turn it over the bullpen in what was still a three-run game thanks to the effectiveness of the Atlanta bullpen. Kyle Higashioka pushed the margin to 4-0 Padres with a solo shot in the eighth, and that score would hold.
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Padres win Game 1 over Braves, 4-0
The Braves showed up in San Diego less than 24 hours before having to play Game 1 of the Wild Card Series thanks to a makeup doubleheader on Monday. Whether the result of Game 1 had anything to do with this can't possibly be known, but the Braves' offense was totally stymied by the Padres pitching staff in a 4-0 San Diego victory that puts them one win away from advancing to an NLDS date with the Dodgers.
Padres starter Michael King worked around two singles in the first inning.
Then his teammates gave him a little help. Fernando Tatis Jr. hit a two-run home run to left field to get the scoring started.
That would actually be all the Padres' pitchers needed, though there was a bit more scoring. The Padres would add a run in a second-inning rally with catcher Kyle Higashioka earning the RBI. Higashioka also tacked on with a solo homer in the bottom of the eighth.
King was amazing in seven innings of scoreless work, allowing only five hits and striking out 12 without issuing a walk. Jason Adam followed with three strikeouts in a scoreless eighth and then closer Robert Suarez brought it home in the ninth, despite it not being a save situation.
The Braves do have a little good news coming, as Max Fried is ready to start Game 2 on short rest. The Padres counter with Joe Musgrove. The Braves have to win two straight in San Diego or their season is over while the Padres only need to win one of the next two to advance.
San Diego would much rather just win Game 2 and start getting ready for the rival Dodgers. If the Padres play like they did in Game 1, that'll be exactly what happens.
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And now Jorge Soler singles. The good news for the Padres is Suarez has a four-run cushion.
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Suarez is in
He's been suspect for weeks and gave up a warning-track flyout on his first pitch to Matt Olson.
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My guess is Mike Shildt will stick to "he's my closer" and use Robert Suarez in the ninth inning, but he's been pretty shaky for the last six weeks or so. Tanner Scott hasn't been. I'd rather use Scott than risk giving the Braves life unnecessarily.
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Impressive outing from Michael King
King is done after seven innings, despite having only thrown 89 pitches. He was masterful, showing the national audience just now nasty his stuff can be. The movement on his sweeper has been ridiculous. He only allowed five hits and didn't allow a run. He struck out 12 without a walk.
King becomes the first Padres pitcher to get into double digits in strikeouts in the postseason since Kevin Brown did so in 1998. He's now second all-time in single playoff game strikeout totals for a Padres pitcher after Brown, who once struck out 16.
The Padres jumped out in front, 3-0, early, but haven't tacked on. The game has felt out of hand due to how dominant King was.
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Aaron Bummer
If the Braves find a way to win this game, the work done here by Aaron Bummer will be a huge reason why. He entered the game in a jam in the second inning with the Padres threatening to expand their 3-0 lead. Had Bummer not done his job well, it might be 5-0 or 6-0 by now. Instead, Bummer has worked 2 2/3 scoreless and hitless innings. He's giving his team a chance to come back.
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Through four complete ...
Padres lead the Braves 3-0 and have an 85.1% chance of winning Game 1.
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Four scoreless innings for King
He's got seven strikeouts and hasn't walked anyone. He's worked around five hits.
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Reminder that Jackson Merrill was a shortstop and moved to center field in spring training in order to make the big-league team as a rookie. He already looks very comfortable out there.
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King escapes a jam
He's in bend but don't break mode tonight. Two hits in the first, two hits in the third, but no runs. He struck out Matt Olson to escape the third inning. Still 3-0 Padres, and they're already into a tired Braves bullpen.
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Padres up 3-0
Yep, Smith-Shawver is done. Padres are up 3-0 already. The Braves got four outs from their starter.
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I know they're in a tough spot with their pitching, but the Braves probably have to get their bullpen going. Smith-Shawver isn't fooling anyone. They have Bryce Elder on the roster. He can give them innings and they have Fried going tomorrow.
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Allow me to overreact to the HR
Through 2021, Fernando Tatis Jr. was a career .293/.369/.596 (160 OPS+) hitter with 162-game averages of 48 homers and 116 RBI. He's been banged up often since then and hasn't really had long stretches where he was 100%. He's the type of talent who could have a historic postseason (like Randy Arozarena in 2020 or something). That HR is a nice sign for the Padres.
Or it could've just been a really cool one-off.
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The first home run of the day goes to ...
... Fernando Tatis Jr. His two-run shot gives the Padres a 2-0 lead in the first inning of Game 1. Luis Arraez opened the frame with a single after Michael King stranded two runners in the top half.
Remember, because of Monday's doubleheader, the Braves had to start young AJ Smith-Shawver in Game 1 because none of their regular starting pitchers are available. And also because Chris Sale has a back issue that is severe enough to keep him off the NLDS roster. The Padres had the best record in baseball after the All-Star break and they're already rolling in October.
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Scoreless first for King
He had to work hard, though, as Michael Harris II led off with a single and then Matt Olson had a two-out, bloop single to put runners at the corners. King struck out three.
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King has some nasty stuff, to say the least.
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The Padres were 50-50 through 100 games. They were 43-19 after that, which was the best record in baseball in that stretch.
The Braves looked like they'd miss the playoffs due to all their injuries in early August, but they went 28-17 after Aug. 11.
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The Padres got King in the Soto trade
Talk about a win-win. The Yankees got one of the best hitters in baseball, the Padres got a frontline starter in King and the top 100 prospect they flipped to the White Sox for Dylan Cease (Drew Thorpe).
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Pitching matchup for the nightcap
Padres start Michael King. While this might be a surprise to many people and might even look like the Padres are taking the series lightly or setting up future games, King has been exceptional for a while. He has a 2.95 ERA on the season, but if we isolated his last 14 starts, he's got a 2.03 ERA with 92 strikeouts in 80 innings. The Padres' back-end of the bullpen features three studs who have been excellent closers before in Jason Adam, Tanner Scott and Robert Suarez. All are full go.
The Braves are starting AJ Smith-Shawver. He has a 0.00 ERA this season! That's in only 4 1/3 innings and it happened on May 23 against a Cubs offense that was terrible at the time. He made 20 starts with Triple-A Gwinnett this season and pitched to a 4.86 ERA in 89 innings. The Braves also figure to be without closer Raisel Iglesias, who worked in both games yesterday.
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Mets beat Brewers 8-4 in back-and-forth Game 1
After two thrilling pitchers' duels to begin the day, the Brewers and Mets played a chaotic Wild Card Series Game 1 at American Family Field Tuesday night. The Brewers took a quick 2-0 lead in the bottom of the first. The Mets answered with three runs in the top of the second. Milwaukee scored two more to take a 4-3 lead in the fourth. Three lead changes in the first four innings!
Game 1 flipped for good in the top of the fifth inning, when the Mets hung a five-spot against three Brewers relievers to take an 8-4 lead. Freddy Peralta was pulled after only four innings and 68 pitches, which was a bit curious even though they weren't the cleanest innings. The Mets certainly didn't complain -- Joel Payamps and Andy Ashby retired only two of the 10 batters they faced immediately after Peralta exited the game.
The most crucial play in that fifth inning came when Jose Iglesias beat out a grounder to first base for an infield single with two outs. Payamps missed first base when he covered the bag, which allowed a run to score and also extended the inning. Iglesias was the first of six consecutive Mets hitters to reach base with two outs. Mark Vientos and J.D. Martinez each had a 2-RBI single.
The Mets punched their postseason ticket with a win in the first game of Monday's doubleheader against the Braves. That allowed them to push Luis Severino back to Tuesday, and although he wobbled early in Game 1, Severino ultimately gave the Mets six innings with four runs (three earned) allowed. He threw 105 pitches and retired the final eight batters he faced.
Given their recent workloads, setup man Phil Maton (pitched last three days) and closer Edwin Díaz (66 pitches last two days) were likely unavailable in Game 1. The four-run lead allowed Mets manager Carlos Mendoza to lean on José Buttó and Ryne Stanek for the final three innings. The final 17 Brewers to bat Tuesday made outs. Their last baserunner came in the fourth inning.
Monday's win was New York's third in three days in two different cities with two travel days mixed in. They beat the Brewers in Milwaukee in what was supposed to be their regular season finale on Sunday, beat the Braves in the first game of Monday's doubleheader in Atlanta to get to the postseason, then returned to Milwaukee and beat the Brewers in Game 1 on Tuesday.
The Mets have a 1-0 lead in the best-of-three Wild Card Series. Lefty Sean Manaea, who's been dominant since lowering his arm slot to copy Chris Sale at midseason, will start Game 2 on Wednesday. The Brewers will give the ball to Frankie Montas with their season on the line.
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Mets in charge
We're through 7, and the Mets lead the Brewers 8-4. That gives New York a 96.3% chance of winning Game 1.
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The last 11 Brewers hitters have made outs. The Mets are up 8-4 heading to the eighth.
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Two games plus 6 1/2 innings into the postseason, there has not yet been a home run hit. Weird.
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Against all odds, Luis Severino makes it through six innings with his Mets still up 8-4.
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Mets up 8-4 in the fifth
J.D. Martinez gives New York some separation with a two-out, two-strike, two-run pinch-hit single.
It should be noted the Mets probably don't have Phil Maton and Edwin Díaz today. Díaz threw 40 pitches yesterday and 66 pitches over the last two days. Maton has pitched each of the last three days, including two innings Saturday. The more runs they score, the easier it will be on the bullpen and manager Carlos Mendoza.
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Tigers-Astros and Orioles-Royals were two close, tightly played games. Mets-Brewers is chaosball. I love it.
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Mets back on top in the fifth
Never let your Little League coach tell you to run through first. At least not if you're Jose Iglesias. The singing middle infielder slid into first and beat Brewers reliever Joel Payamps to the base, allowing Tyrone Taylor to score the tying run. Aaron Ashby is now in for Milwaukee.
Brandon Nimmo followed with an infield single and Mark Vientos lined a single into right field to drive in two, putting the Mets up 6-4. After intentionally walking Pete Alonso, Ashby allowed a two-run single to J.D. Martinez to sink his team further behind, 8-4.
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Brewers take back lead
It's a been punch-and-counterpunch Game 1 in Milwaukee thus far. Down 3-2 to start the home half of the fourth, the Brewers got a double from Sal Frelick, a single from Brice Turang (Turang's third hit of the day), and then a game-tying double from 20-year-old Jackson Chourio:
That makes it 4-3 Brewers.
Mets starter Luis Severino managed to survive the frame, but he's now permitted eight hits and two walks in his four innings of work.
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O's losing streak hits nine
That is Baltimore's ninth consecutive postseason loss dating back to 2014. Their last postseason win was Game 2 of the 2014 ALDS, when Bud Norris outpitched David Price. What a series that was. Price, Scherzer, Verlander got swept by Norris, Chris Tillman, and Wei-Yin Chen.
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Royals outlast Orioles 1-0 in Game 1
The Corbin Burnes vs. Cole Ragans pitchers' duel more than delivered. Ragans struck out eight in six shutout innings before exiting with cramps in his calf. He threw only 80 pitches. Ragans had cramping issues late in the regular season as well. Kansas City's path to success this postseason is getting superlative starting pitching and just enough offense, and Ragans was terrific in Game 1.
As for Burnes, he was simply a buzz saw Tuesday. He threw 84 pitches in eight innings plus one batter, and held the Royals to one run on five hits and a walk. The Royals scratched out the game's only run in the sixth inning when Burnes walked No. 9 hitter Maikel Garcia, then Garcia stole second base and moved to third on a grounder to second. Bobby Witt Jr.'s two-out single brought him in.
Per research from FanGraphs, Burnes is the first starting pitcher to pitch into the ninth inning of a postseason game and take the loss since Jose Contreras with the White Sox in 2005. He's the first starter to throw a pitch in the ninth inning of a postseason game at all since Stephen Strasburg in Game 6 of the 2019 World Series.
The Orioles had multiple chances to put a run on the board Tuesday. They had runners on the corners with one out in the fifth, but Ragans fanned James McCann and Gunnar Henderson to escape the jam. In the eighth, they had runners at first and second with two outs, but 44-homer man Anthony Santander hit a weak tapper to short to end that threat.
One run was enough in Game 1, though Kansas City's offense has really struggled the last few weeks. They scored more than two runs in only three of their final 11 regular season games, and it's not like they were playing hangover games. The Royals were still trying to secure a postseason berth for the majority of those 11 games. Hey, whatever works.
The Royals have a 1-0 lead in the best-of-three series and will send Seth Lugo, who like Ragans should get a healthy dose of Cy Young votes, to the mound in Game 2 on Wednesday. The O's will starttrade deadline pickup Zach Eflin.
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